How did you go bankrupt?” Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly. — Ernest Hemingway
We are currently in a deceptively quite period where some companies and countries are aggressively investing in AI research and commercial applications, while others are just getting on with business as usual, watching from the sidelines.
This is a very dangerous and deceptive period, which resembles a classical Kodak moment.
The revolution that is currently taking place in AI powered applications has arrived but is invisible to most. You experience it every time you do a Google search, every time you order an Uber, every time you chat in messenger and every time you scroll down your social feeds. AI applications are creeping up on us slowly and increadibly fast al at the same time. The intense race for global AI dominance by leading economic powers like the US and China is fueling intense global competition, according to a new study by the McKinsey Global Institute on the future impact of AI on businesses, the economy and society.
McKinsey suggests AI powered technologies will be responsible for $13 trillion or 16% GDP uplift to the global economy by 2030. This is in line with forecasts made last year by Accenture & PwC. The report also suggests that companies which embrace AI will double their cashflow by 2030. Those that don’t could lose 20% of their revenue by then. Or even worse, loose their ability to compete and die.
The report concludes that by 2025-30 a number of winners will be so far ahead of the competition that by 2035, there will be a clear divide between winners and losers among countries, companies and even individuals.
The difference will be defined by those who took the coming age seriously and prepared for it, and those who were passive and watched from the sidelines. The next generation winners will be those who are not fooled by the absence of visible change from AI over the next 5-7 years.
By the time the fruits of AI investment become clear — after 2025 — it will be extremely difficult to compete with the leading players.